The Philadelphia Eagles head to the West Coast to take on the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday afternoon. The Eagles have managed to avoid the dreaded Super Bowl hangover and are off to a 4-0 start while the Rams are 2-2 straight up but have gone 3-0-1 against the spread.
NFL odds have Philadelphia installed as a 4-point road favorite with the Over/Under at 50.5. Here are my free NFL picks for the Eagles vs. Rams on October 8.
Eagles vs Rams odds
Eagles vs Rams predictions
Quarterback Matthew Stafford suffered a hip contusion while leading the Los Angeles Rams to a gritty overtime win against the Colts last week. The tough veteran will be back in the lineup however and he’ll be joined by All-Pro wideout Cooper Kupp who will make his season debut after missing the first four games with a hamstring injury. In Kupp’s absence, fifth-round rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua has emerged as a weapon and leads the league with 39 catches for 501 yards.
With Kupp and Nacua out wide along with Tutu Atwell, Stafford has one of the best WR trios of his career. That gives him plenty of ammunition to take on an Eagles team that is 20th in the league in defensive dropback EPA and 27th in passing yards allowed per game (260.8).
The Rams will need to lean on Stafford and their aerial attack in this contest since they’ve struggled to establish the run. Running back Kyren Williams is coming off a 103-yard performance against the Colts but he has a modest 245 rushing yards and 3.8 yards per carry on the year and could find it tough to find space against a Philly stop unit that holds foes to 3.3 yards per carry.
With Stafford slinging for more than 300 yards in three of four games this year, take the Over on his passing yards total for Sunday.
My best bet: Stafford Over 269.5 passing yards (-114) play up to 278.5Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Eagles vs Rams same-game parlay
Matthew Stafford Over 269.5 passing yardsEagles -4.5Jalen Hurts Under 41.5 rushing yards
+681 at FanDuel
Another reason why I like the Over on Stafford’s passing yards is due to the Rams being underdogs in this spot. The Rams will most likely be in negative or neutral game scripts which should lead to plenty of pass attempts from a Sean McVay offense that likes to throw the ball.
While the Philadelphia Eagles have been a bit underwhelming at times this year, they are still one of the most talented and balanced squads in the league, and there’s good reason why they are third on the Super Bowl odds board at +700.
On the other hand, the Rams have surpassed expectations but they have more holes throughout their lineup. As mentioned, the ground game has been inconsistent and that’s been in large part due to ineffective blocking up front. L.A.’s offensive line is 24th in the latest PFF rankings and is 28th in pass blocking with a 45% win rate according to ESPN.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams are 21st in the league in defensive EPA and will have a tough time matching up against the Eagles’ dominant offensive line and multiple weapons. With Philly boasting the more talented lineup, it should be able to cover the spread — but that doesn’t necessarily mean a big rushing game from QB Jalen Hurts.
While Hurts has made strides as a passer, he seems to have lost a bit of juice as a runner and the Eagles have called fewer designed run plays. After running for 1,544 yards and 5.1 yards per carry over the last two years, Hurts is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry this year and has yet to break the 40-yard plateau in a game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Eagles vs Rams spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Eagles at -4.5 before ticking down slightly to -4 at most books. Meanwhile, the total has surged from 47.5 to 50.5 which isn’t surprising when you consider that these explosive offenses are in the Top 10 in EPA/play while their defenses sit in the bottom half of the league in EPA.
The Eagles are coming off a hard-fought overtime victory against the Commanders. Philly beat and covered the 3.5-point spread against the Pats in Week 1 but were outgained 382-251 in total yards. Then the Eagles defeated the Vikings 34-28 but benefitted from four lost fumbles by Minnesota. Ironically their most impressive victory came in a dominant performance against the Bucs in Week 3 when many sharps were backing Tampa Bay.
The Rams are fresh off an overtime victory of their own after beating the Colts 29-23 to snap a two-game skid.
